The Golden Rumpus

Shaunti Feldhahn (in the Chicago Sun-Times, 12/8) criticizes the new movie The Golden Compass with the following words:

"'Making family friendly movies is laudable, and we are not so concerned with the film, per se, but it poses a bigger problem. Because parents and kids will see this movie and then want the books . . . and the books aren't watered down.'

Parents need to know that this first step will lead to another. And the next books are disturbing. We saw this trend with Harry Potter -- as each book and movie got darker and darker, to the point that many parents would never have let their kids read the last book, had it come out first.

I'm sad that parents even have to worry about this, especially at this time of year, when, as many families celebrate the birth of Christ, a foothold is given to books that want to do anything but."

I don't recall similar cautionary writeups about The Passion of the Christ, or The Ten Commandments--watch out, kids might want to read the books...when in fact the Bible with its angry, genocidal, racist, intolerant god with a penchant for the smell of burning flesh is far more disturbing than any of the Golden Compass books.

So, if your children seem poised to make the increasingly unlikely movie-to-book jump...they are doubtless safer with Philip Pullman's little fantasy than they will ever be with the Book at which he takes a little jab.

Sound Investment Advice

Uh...no pun intended. It just came out like that.

This blog is about investment advice. Simple. Buy ZUNE. The brown, poop-colored model is probably the way to go. Why? It's classic. The device itself is counterintuitive...I mean who didn't scratch their head when it was announced? The color...well, white and black are a bit too iPodish. Poop-color, now that fits the whole marketing strategy.

It's the one that Bill is holding in the photograph. You can't claim that yours is the one in the photo, though. Just to give you a bit of background on the photo, I have it on very good authority that this photograph was taken on the day that Bill came down from the Mountain. When he came down, he saw everyone gathered around a golden iPod. Dancing. Feasting. Enjoying the latest from Maroon 5 etc. etc. They were supposed to have been waiting musiclessly for Bill, while quietly dreaming of zuning each other and getting 3 and a half free plays of each others' tunes.

A couple of people at the bottom of the Mountain happened to glance up at Bill and pulled out an earbud each.
"Hey dude, isn't that Bill?"
"Bill? You mean the older guy waving the turd?"
"Yeah..."
"A turd. With bare hands...? That's really gross."
"The things people do for attention..."
"Yeah. He should wear gloves or something."

So, filled with righteous indignation, Bill raised his poop-brown zune (the historic kodak moment we have here), and smashed it on the ground. Shortly after this photograph was taken, Bill had to go back up the Mountain and get another one. The rest of the text is obviously garbled, because it says something like the next time he went up, he came back with an iPod...so he could go down and join the fun.

While we wait for a confirmation on how that story ended, let's get back to our sound investment.

Buy a Zune?!? Some of you may be wondering how such an unsound consumer decision could possibly be good investor advice. I don't think there is anything particularly surprising or even ironic about that. I mean, only an idiot actually uses commemorative stamps. What could you possibly use a Picasso or a Van Gogh for? Cut it up and make coasters? Some of the best investments are completely useless...the Zune is a perfect example.

The difference between investing in a Zune and becoming a Zune user, is that Zune users expect some kind of utility from their Zune. They take it out of the box and wait for their "zune experience" which never actually happens--unless "zune experience" is actually pig latin for iPod envy--something most zune users have in abundunce. They soon discover that only way to get over the "zune experience" is to get an iPod.

Oops, off on a tangent here. The important thing is that most Zunes get unwrapped and used. Last I checked, this causes their value to plummet to right around the 100 dollar mark (eBay). Probably lower, as soon as buyers realize that the retail price has been slashed.

Following their bout of iPod envy and general embarrassment, Zune users finally do what they should have done in the first place...buy an iPod. Their Zune fulfills its destiny as a gift to granddad, a paperweight, a makeshift nail pounder, the star of creative pyrotechnic clips for youtube, or a corpse weight. The point is, that ten years from now, Zunes will be unwrapped, dusty, dented from nails and melted here and there.

A pristine Zune, still in the wrapper (do they come in a wrapper?) will be as rare as a notebook full of Michaelangelo's doodles. Forget eBay. We're talking Sotheby's or Christie's. Mark my words.

Am I missing something?

This Larry Craig story...

OK, so he's a family values kinda guy. Republican. Adamantly "not gay." Against gay marriage...whatever. That's not the issue here.

Republican. Democrat. I don't care. I have very little use for politicians, period.

Back to Larry, despite his lame protestations to the contrary, let's just assume for a moment that he was hoping to get lucky. He sees this cute guy who gives him the eye and looks like he may be up for some fun...

...and this is the part that I don't get--an undercover cop doing hanging out in public toilets trying to entrap sexually confused geriatrics?

Think of the places where you (OK, not you...how about someone you know?) have tried to pick someone up. Let's think hetero for a minute (you'll have to bear with us, Larry). There aren't many mixed-use toilets, so let's change the venue. Bars are rather public places. Lot's of people get picked up in bars.

Let's pretend that Larry is straight, single or divorced, a democrat, let's keep him white (if he was black, they'd probably bust him for attempted rape), and he's alone in a bar...

This hot chick gives him the eye and lures him back to a dark corner. Larry has not gotten lucky for a long (just look at him). He follows her and just as he's starting to say, "hey baby, how about you and I..."

"Wipe your drool old man. I'm a police officer. You're under arrest for LEWD BEHAVIOR. You have the right to blah blah blah..."

Normal people would be up in arms. I hope anyway...America is pretty weird these days, so it's getting more and more difficult to know what qualifies as "normal."

The thing is that the real Larry (republican, married, family values kind of guy--whatever those are, sexually confused, Idaho senator Larry) didn't even do what our pretend, straight Larry did. All that happened was a bit of footsie and hand waving under a toilet divider. He didn't ask "how much for a blowie?" He didn't even verbally solicit sex. Probably no drool. either...

America, what's the big deal?!?

LEWD BEHAVIOR?!? Leave the poor old man alone!

And Larry, you silly ass! Why didn't you just say, "I thought he was cute. I just wanted to get his attention to ask for his phone number?" Surely they can't bust someone for waving to a cutie under a toilet divider to get their number.

Or can they?

Just a couple more questions:

Don't police officers have more pressing matters to attend to in airports? Can't they do something productive, like wander around the concourse looking manly with all their weapons? Or do something to help shorten the wait? Or harass people with beards and bad accents?

What do these cops say when their wives (or partners) ask them "how was your day, honey?"

"You're not gonna believe this...."

How to solve the world's hunger crisis

God, I love this stuff. More gasoline on the fire...or should I say fat on the flames. Here's some new research:

http://www.wesh.com/news/3930625/detail.html?subid=10100244

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_virus

Dr. Richard Atkinson believes that he has found a virus that causes FAT. I'm not even going to complain about the stats this time. I'll try another tack.

Do we need any more reasons to marginalize fat people? Do we need any more reason to ban them from the workplace and polite society? They are destroying our health and on the brink of lipidating the entire civilized world...

The evidence is mounting fast and furious, FAT people are chipping away at our society in every way they can, first by friendship (see an earlier blog), now by spreading the dreaded FAT virus...

It is pretty obvious that people with FAT need to be quarantined and kept away from the rest of us. If someone with "bad" TB can't ride an airplane, what about someone with "bad" FAT? FAT kills. It's as serious a killer as smoking. Smoking isn't allowed in restaurants and public buildings, what about people with FAT? Think of the possibilities for litigation:

"She gave me FAT..."

Start making a list of all the fatties you hang out with (especially the rich ones). If you ever come down with FAT, you could fulfill the new American Dream--litigate your way to prosperity.

One problem...rich people don't seem as susceptible to the FAT virus...

You may be wondering how any of this has anything to do with the world's food crisis. Well, think about it. Science is gradually "proving" that diet and exercise have nothing to do with the obesity epidemic. That means that rather than sending food to countries with food crises and famines, that we should send them our fat people. We'll not only stem the epidemic at home, but we'll give the starving people FAT. Once they catch FAT, they won't be skinny and hungry anymore.

...maybe we should also send over boatloads of 2 liter bottles of Coke and potato chips, too. I hear the FAT virus thrives on that stuff.


I've got this little theory. Don't get me wrong, I really like the FAT virus idea. It's a very cool way to send the lardos packing. None of studies say how you actually catch the virus. I'm just wondering if is possible for people to catch the virus by eating lots of unhealthy food and not exercising. And, if that is the case, maybe they can get cured by not eating so much crap and exercising...

...or perhaps, if someone has FAT, but they eat right and exercise, they may never have the symptoms...

...I'm going to step waaay out on a pharmacological limb here. You don't see many smokers with FAT. You don't see many speed freaks or crack heads with FAT, either...

...you don't suppose--hidden medicinal benefits?!? Maybe it's time sell those Apple Inc. stocks and put some money into tobacco shares and recreational pharmaceuticals...

Nah, too radical...

Let's stick with denial and discrimination.

Suicide bomber targets American Consulate in Osaka

A diminutive suicide bomber failed in his attempt to blow up the American Consulate in Osaka today. Authorities concluded from the bomber's probable Asian origins, abundant facial hair, lack of any documentation, the absence of an ipod containing American pop music, and the fact that the bomber had been seen outside a halaal restaurant several days earlier, that the would-be bomber was a radical Islamist. The botched nature of bombing attempt bore a eerie resemblence to recent such attempts in other countries including the United Kingdom. Authorities are investigating possible links to Al Qaeda.

Evidently the bomber was trying to enter the American Consulte through the grating in the street beside the heavily guarded building. The bomber got stuck in the grating and succeeded in committing suicide; however, no explosive devices were detonated. There were no other casualties or damage to the American Consulate or nearby structures. The fact that no explosive devices have yet been located, suggest that the bomber could have had an accomplice, who may strike again at any time. Authorities are making every attempt to determine if the would-be bomber was part of a homegrown plot or had been indoctrinated outside of Japan.

Passersby who noticed the little scene in the street seemed quite shocked that something like this could happen in this peaceful metropolis in western Japan. Citizens see this incident as part of the cost of supporting the United States in the war on terror in Iraq and expect an escalation in the coming months.

First, it was your fat friends...now, it's your fake boobs that are killing you

...and the hits just keep coming...

Forbes

http://www.forbes.com/forbeslife/health/feeds/hscout/2007/08/09/hscout607188.html

reports a study in the Annals of Plastic Surgery that found that the number of deaths from suicide were three times higher for women with implants. The same study reported that the number of deaths related to substance abuse, lung cancer, and respiratory disease was also higher.

If anyone wants a pdf of the original study. Let me know.

The study concludes that "thus, screening for preimplant psychiatric morbidity and postimplant monitoring may be warranted"

This is what happens when a bunch of plastic surgeons get their hands on statistics software. Doctors, put down your laptops, pick up those scapels, and get back in the operating room!

Let's leave our silicon boobs for a moment and ponder what other alarmist studies we could do...

How about these?

1. If we looked at the death rate of Americans in Iraq, we would probably find that a large number of them have very short hair, sunglasses, and poor sartorial taste--big funny hats and clothes with big blotchy prints. Therefore, barbers should consider counseling everyone who gets a crewcut, or buys sunglasses...and perhaps young Americans in Iraq should consider something a bit more Saville Row...

or...

2. If we look at inner city crime stats, I'll bet guys who listen to hip hop, and wear their caps wrong have a much higher chance of getting killed in drug-related incidents than those who don't. We should therefore advise our dealers to straighten their caps and start listening to more John Denver and Anne Murray...

Ah, but then the suicide rates would probably go up (sorry Canadians...but seriously, you guys need more edge)

Just like the "fat friends" study, these guys are not quite coming out and saying that fake boobs are the culprit. They dance around the point, but the implication of causality is lurking somewhere just under the surface the whole time.

The study doesn't report the statistical procedures used...I imagine they used some type of survival failure analysis...chi squares...whatever. It's post hoc correlational stuff that cannot be used to establish casaulity.

They should really be looking for underlying variables. This study should be in a journal of psychiatry...but a psych journal would probably be much more rigorous.

Besides, trying to identify some underlying variable would make this type of study pretty boring. Forbes would never write it up, and it probably wouldn't even get published in the first place. But, the underlying variables are probably the cause of suicides. Not many happy contented people commit suicide (or abuse drugs and alcohol). And, women who are happy with the way they look probably don't opt for breat augmentation surgery. Isn't there a chance that someone who is not happy about the way they look may be unhappy about other things. People who are unhappy about things or willing to risk a boob job may also have drug and alcohol dependencies.

Who knows, the boob jobs may actually be keeping lesser endowed women from considering suicide sooner.

Hmmm...I still want to do that Iraq study, "Sartorial indiscretion to blame for American deaths in Iraq" or, "Anne Murray saves lives..."

I'll wait til after I finish my dissertation.

Your fat friends are killing you (or How not to do statistics)

Great news! It isn't those late night snacks and lack of exercise that are making you fat. It's those disgusting fat people you hang out with.

And I can prove it...

According to Nicole Martin at Telegraph.co.uk,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/25/nfat125.xml

"People with obese friends or siblings are at a greater risk of becoming overweight, according to a new research [sic] which shatters the view that poor diets and sedentary lifestyles are uniquely to blame for rising obesitiy rates"

Hang onto those potato chips. Don't throw away the dip. Restock your fridge with beer and resume the couch potato position. All you gotta do is get rid of those fat friends.

First it was secondhand smoke, now it's second hand obesity. Let's put this in context. We all know that obesity kills--deaths caused by obesity are surpassing those from smoking, now we find out that obesity is contagious--you get it from your fat friends. Therefore, your fat friends are killing you.

There goes the image of jolly fat people. They are killers.

It's time to trim the fat. Get rid of your fat friends.

If YOU are a fattie, you are very likely to find yourself on the social chopping block. Even before your friends desert you, you should sever the ties yourself before you kill anyone else. That's what you get for being a fattie. You're a carrier. You're infected.

Within a few years, it will probably be illegal for fat people to have friends...friendship with the intent to kill...our prisons will be overflowing.

Here's a link to the actual study:

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/reprint/357/4/370.pdf

Before we begin a jihad on fat people (or, depending on your size, get your lardass jihadded), I should address a minor stats issue. This study reports a longitudinal logistic regression analysis. Sounds impressive, but the whole study falls apart on that single point. Logistic regression is used to predict a discrete outcome (in this case, whether or not someone will become obese) from a set of predictor variables (in this case, the presence or absence of obese friends and relatives). It basically tells us how well those variables predict membership in a particular group--PREDICT, not CAUSE.

For those of you who are not statisticians, let's say that you were a insurance company and you wanted to decide whether someone is an accident risk or not. You could analyze past data using logistic regression. You could look at variables such as gender, race, age, color and make of car, smoker or not, presence or absence of tattoos....etc.

Your logistic regression results may tell you that a heavily tattooed, 20 year-old white male smoker, who drives a red sports car is a lousy insurance risk--and you are probably right. But, do any of those variables actually cause accidents? Do tattoos cause accidents? Do red cars cause accidents? Does smoking cause accidents? Unlikely. A much more reasonable approach would be to look for a something that underlies all of those variables...a tendency to take risks etc.

Logistic regression cannot be used to establish causality. You'd have to conduct a series of experiments to find out if any of those factors causes accidents.

Back to our jihad on fatties, isn't it much more reasonable to look for something that underlies the way fat spreads? People tend to form friendships with people of similar backgrounds and socioeconomic status. Both of these have been shown to correlate very highly with attitudes toward diets and exercise. There are any number of possible underlying variables that could explain the seeming contagiousness of fat; however, the discussion section of the study pussyfoots over this issue and leaves us with the bizzare impression that you can catch fat from your friends.

Properly conducted medical research makes it pretty clear that you don't catch fat, you do it to yourself by eating and not exercising. The human body wasn't designed to handle 2-liter Pepsis, pizza, six-packs of beer, and sitting in front of the tube for four and a half hours a day. Jeez!